Morocco’s NDC 3.0 – Setting ambition in tripling renewables, coal phaseout, adaptation action and a spotlight on loss and damage

Morocco’s third NDC, or NDC 3.0, was published by the UNFCCC earlier this week, setting out important ambitions which align with various independent international benchmarks for leadership, signalling a forward focus on implementation. 

Key highlights of the NDC 3.0 include: 

• on mitigation, a headline commitment to raise emissions reductions to 53% by 2035 (conditional on international support), with the aim to triple renewable energy capacities by 2030 and a first-ever announcement of a conditional coal phaseout date (that is, 2040, conditional on international support), as well as actions on storage, grids, and other fronts; 

• on adaptation, a detailed set of 80 sectoral adaptation objectives for 2035 underpinned by 107 specific adaptation projects, and on loss and damage, an entire chapter dedicated to the topic; 

• on finance, new details on the requisite amounts for conditional and unconditional action across numerous specific projects, implying contributions from the government, private investment, and international cooperation.

These three areas are explored non-exhaustively in more detail below, as an initial review of highlights.

Mitigation — Renewable energy, coal phaseout, grids, storage, and more

Morocco’s NDC 3.0, which builds on existing national climate-related strategies, including the National Low-Carbon Strategy to 2050, raises the headline national ambition for GHG reduction to 53% by 2035 relative to a business-as-usual scenario, from the previously committed  45.5% by 2030 in NDC 2.0, representing a clear “progression” under Article 4 of the Paris Agreement. Within the 53%, 21.6% is an unconditional commitment, while 31.4% is conditioned on the availability of financing. 

The NDC’s mitigation effort spans various sectors, but the electricity sector sits at the heart of the effort. While Morocco’s 2021 NDC aimed to reach 52% of installed electricity capacity from renewables by 2030, the 2025 update goes further: aiming for: 

1. tripling Morocco’s renewable energy capacity to over 15 GW by 2030; 

2. build-out of storage as well as enhancing the electricity grid and regional interconnections; and

3. a conditional coal phase‑out date of 2040, conditioned on international support.

On renewable energy, Morocco aims to triple renewable capacity from around 5 GW in installed capacities to over 15 GW by 2030, based largely on the new 2025-35 “Equipment Plan” established for Morocco’s national utility company ONEE earlier this year. In setting this goal, Morocco aligns with the COP28 goal to triple global renewable energy capacities by 2030. Interestingly, the NDC affirms a 15 GW target in absolute terms, but still refers to the target of renewable energy reaching 52% in the mix of Morocco’s installed electric capacity by 2030, whereas the Equipment Plan made it clear that this capacity target will actually be achieved well before 2030, with that ambition now set at 56% by the end of 2027. Hence the NDC, in some regards, in fact underplays the country’s confirmed plans and trajectory ambitions.

For Morocco, this tripling is of course a massive leap which, if achieved, would redefine the country’s electricity mix.  A big part of the challenge in implementing this ambition will be in accelerating the processes around permits for solar and wind energy projects, while respecting socio-environmental safeguards, and multiplying private sector involvement and investment in this sector, to unprecedented levels relative to the record to date. Moreover, while this tripling plan focuses largely on utility-scale projects, successful delivery will also depend on unblocking decentralized electricity production, which only features as a limited target in this NDC. This topic is the subject of a forthcoming report by IMAL, assessing the potential and pathways for wider integration of decentralized photovoltaics in Morocco’s energy transition by 2035.

On storage and grids — success in Morocco’s power sector transition depends on enhancing associated enabling infrastructure to allow the expansion of variable renewable energy production in the national grid. In this regard, Morocco is aiming for the following by 2035: 

• 3 bn USD for grid modernization (2025–2030),

• 1,500 MW of battery storage (2025–2026), 

• a 350 MW pumped-storage project by 2029, 

• and a South-Center HVDC line to harness Morocco’s Saharan solar and wind potential.

In addition, on regional grid interconnections, the NDC also acknowledges Morocco’s plans to reinforce its electricity interconnections with Europe and within Africa, building on recent progress with Mauritania.

On coal, Morocco in its NDC 3.0 has announced, for the first time ever, a conditional date for the phase out of coal in electricity production. The ambition is set as by 2040, conditioned on international support, with an unconditional commitment to phase out in the 2040s. This 2040 date places Morocco in a position of leadership according to international standards for coal phaseout timeframes established by the Powering Past Coal Alliance (PPCA), a group of which the NDC 3.0 notes that Morocco is now a member. The NDC 3.0 further notes that the conditional commitment would include "the early shutdown of power plants and the management of contractual commitments." Here, Morocco’s ambition aligns with recommendations previously made by IMAL.

Beyond the electricity sector, Morocco’s NDC also presents ambitions in mitigation across other sectors of the economy.

Notably, the NDC presents an integrated agenda for expanding sustainable mobility and transport with both broad strategies and concrete projects, across high speed rail (LGV), regional metropolitan train systems (RER), tramway extensions, CO₂ standards, “bonus-malus” schemes, and incentives for electrification of two- and three-wheel vehicles.

Morocco’s NDC 3.0 also affirms a national plan for methane, contributing, it is noted, to the Global Methane Pledge. The methane plan focuses on the high-emitting sectors of livestock and agriculture, municipal waste and wastewater, plus energy and biogas recovery, complementing a biomass-to-energy roadmap.  The following trajectory is offered for reduction of methane emissions: 

• 23.5% by 2030 in a moderate case, 

• 36.2% by 2030 in an ambitious case (and 56.8% by 2050)

Resilience, adaptation, and loss and damage

As the impacts of climate change continue to worsen in Morocco, adaptation and loss and damage are arguably equally important to Morocco’s NDC 3.0 as mitigation — indeed, the NDC 3.0 dedicates a full chapter to adaptation and another full chapter to loss and damage, on a separate basis.

A strategic priority for Morocco, captured in the NDC 3.0, is enhancing water security, given Morocco’s position in the most water-scarce region in the world. The NDC affirms that the 2019–23 period was the longest and most severe drought sequence ever recorded in Morocco, with the year 2023 being the driest year on record for Morocco in at least eighty years of its recorded history, resulting in significant loss and damage to the economy, to communities and to ecosystems.

In its NDC 3.0, Morocco sets 80 sectoral adaptation objectives for 2035, broken down into 107 adaptation projects, divided between 61 unconditional projects and 46 conditional projects — also affirming its contributions to targets established under the Global Goal on Adaptation.

Morocco's NDC 3.0 identifies numerous existing climate sectoral strategies contributing to the implementation of the adaptation component, including but not limited to the National Water Strategy (SNE), the National Water Plan (PNE), the National Drinking Water Supply and Irrigation Program (PNAEPI), the National Irrigation Water Saving Program (PNEEI), the Irrigation Extension Program (PEI), the "Forests of Morocco 2020-2030" Strategy, Integrated Forest Fire Management in Morocco, National Intersectoral Strategy & Action Plan 2020-2030.

The NDC lays out various actions concerning water security, including inter-basin transfers, water-saving irrigation, water treatment and reuse, as well as large scale desalination plants. The NDC 3.0 positions seawater desalination as a strategic pillar of the country’s approach. It sets out Morocco’s aim to make a fleet of large plants operational by 2035, including in Rabat, Casablanca, Tanger, l’Oriental,  Boujdour, Essaouira, Tan-Tan, Tarfaya, Guelmim, and Souss Massa. These efforts are set to mobilise ~ 2 billion m3/year of desalinated water by 2035. Here, intent must be translated into action is power desalination efforts by renewable energies and avoid the need for imported fossil fuels, while the by-product of brine will have to be addressed appropriately to avoid negative socio-environmental impacts.

Last but not least, the NDC 3.0 also distinguishes itself with a full chapter dedicated to loss and damage. This reflects the reality of severe climate change impacts being experienced in the Kingdom, including with specific costs in the billions of USD, across drought, heatwaves, wildfires, floods, sea level rise, and other impacts identified in the NDC. 

Loss and damage is also tied closely to migration and displacement. The NDC notes that between 2008 and 2024, floods and forest fires have led to the internal displacement of approximately 32,000 people, and that wider phenomena may lead to the migration of 1.9 million people from rural to urban areas, exacerbating territorial imbalances and the vulnerability of urban areas. The NDC also offers an annex on climate‑related human mobility and the linkage with adaptation. 

This spotlight on loss and damage aligns with Morocco’s engagement on this topic in the UN climate process amid political developments in recent years – at the end of the day, of course, Morocco, like other countries in Africa, is generally not responsible for driving climate change, but is on the frontlines of suffering the impacts. 

Finance and international support

In relation to finance and international support, Morocco’s NDC 3.0 offers a strong message of how various actions will be pursued—unconditionally—where the country cannot wait for uncertain international support, while nevertheless offering strong conditionalities for its ability to fully deliver both on adaptation and mitigation ambitions, as expressed above – necessitating a greater contribution and ambition on climate finance on the part of “developed country” partners.

The financial component is positioned at the heart of the NDC, offering new information and project-based analysis, intended to promote both climate finance from “developed countries” as well as investment from the private sector. One particularly noteworthy milestone in the NDC is how it embeds climate ambition directly into national budgeting, for the first time aligning its NDC priority measures with the Ministry of Finance’s Tri-Annual Budget Programming (2026–2028). This type of explicit NDC budget alignment remains relatively rare, and positions Morocco as a regional frontrunner in linking climate action with fiscal planning.

On the whole, the total estimated funding required for implementing the NDC 3.0 is around $96 billion, including both mitigation and adaptation, conditional as well as unconditional actions. 

On adaptation, Morocco’s NDC identifies a set of financing requirements totaling $36.1 billion for 2026-2035. What stands out is that around 93% of this financing need is to be met unconditionally (over $33.5 billion, of which 26.5 billion is for water alone), with only 7% of the identified adaptation financing needs being tagged as conditional. 

In this, Morocco is essentially stating in its NDC 3.0 that the water security and climate resilience of its communities and ecosystems are existential priorities that cannot wait for external finance pledges from the Global North to materialise. Morocco's approach to conditional adaptation projects (at 7%) reflects a stark reality: countries have little incentive to set more ambitious conditional targets when international climate finance remains unambitious, as evidenced by the COP29 outcome on the Baku New Collective Quantified Goal on climate finance and subsequent moves by “developed countries”. Adaptation action, therefore, falls short of what it might have otherwise been.

On mitigation, Morocco estimates $60 billion in financing needs across its mitigation projects in the NDC 3.0, primarily for its energy transition ambitions with $21 billion for electricity systems and $13.9 billion for transport decarbonization. Of the grand total, 56% ($33.8 billion) as conditional financing with $26.2 billion assumed to be unconditionally secured. Here, compared with adaptation, the conditional financing is intended to include both investments coming especially from the private sector given the commercial opportunity as well as international financial support in climate finance from “developed countries”. 

Morocco has already undertaken significant efforts to mobilize private sector investments to invest in climate action, particularly on the mitigation side. The NDC explicitly references Morocco’s Strategy for the Development of Climate Finance (SDFC 2030), which lays out mechanisms to mobilize private capital in line with the vision of Morocco’s Investment Charter, including risk-sharing instruments and market tools to bring forward origination of bankable projects, to permit institutional investors and private actors to step up NDC-aligned investments.