Morocco’s NDC 3.0: targeting an end to coal by 2040?

Mohammedia. Photo from ONEE.

Morocco has long been recognized as a renewable energy pioneer, yet currently faces a critical challenge: a dependence on imported coal for electricity that is diminishing but still overwhelming. In 2023, coal accounted for about 64% of Morocco’s electricity production, while renewables contributed only 21.7% (ANRE, Annual Report 2023), despite important advances in wind and solar. 

Such heavy reliance on coal not only jeopardizes Morocco’s climate leadership but also creates serious energy security vulnerabilities and economic costs, impeding the achievement of the strategic goal of energy sovereignty reaffirmed by His Majesty King Mohammed VI in his recent speech to the nation on the occasion of the Throne Day. Over 90% of the country’s energy supply is imported, making Morocco’s economy highly exposed to global market volatility, price fluctuations, and supply disruptions. As the clean energy transition accelerates, Morocco must act decisively to safeguard its economic prosperity and maintain its climate leadership. In joining the Powering Past Coal Alliance at COP28 in Dubai, Morocco implied its ambition to phase out use of unabated coal-fired power by 2040, but this is only a first step. 

Explicitly setting a clear targeted year as a deadline for coal phaseout, which can be conditioned on provision of international support, is arguably a necessity for the upcoming update of Morocco’s Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC 3.0).

Morocco’s NDC process

At the heart of Morocco’s climate strategy is its NDC 2.0 submitted in 2021. Under that commitment, Morocco pledges to cut greenhouse gas emissions 18.3% below business-as-usual (BAU) by 2030 unconditionally, and up to 45.5% conditional on sufficient international support. A significant portion of these emission cuts, roughly one-third, is expected to come from the power generation sector by expanding renewables. In fact, Morocco’s NDC 2.0 includes a target to increase the share of renewables in installed power capacity from around 18% in 2020 to more than 52% before 2030.

Building on this foundation, Morocco is now preparing its next NDC (“NDC 3.0”) for submission ahead of COP30. Upward revisions are under consideration to sharpen ambition and delivery. The new NDC 3.0 is expected to feature an accelerated deployment of wind and solar, along with scaled-up energy storage and grid reinforcement (supporting the global pledges on renewables at COP28 and on energy storage and grids at COP29), drawing on Morocco’s new “Equipment Plan” for the power sector.

Why is a coal phaseout date in Morocco’s NDC 3.0 an imperative?

Embedding a target year for coal phaseout in NDC 3.0 is essential to actually reducing Morocco’s emissions — since coal is one of the main sources of Morocco’s emissions. According to the Powering Past Coal Alliance (PPCA), which Morocco joined in 2023, a Paris Agreement-aligned 1.5°C scenario requires coal phaseout by 2030 for developed countries and by 2040 for developing countries. 

As a developing country which imports its coal at great cost, Morocco can and should commit to a full exit of coal-fired electricity by 2040, or earlier if strategic. Setting “by 2040” as the latest end-date for coal power, rather than leaving it to a date within the 2040s corresponding with current trajectories based on committed contracts, would reinforce the climate leadership of NDC 3.0 and ensure coherence with Morocco’s ambitions to be an important player in the green economy on the global stage. Noting the existing contracts involving coal, Morocco could, as it sees fit, make 2040 a conditional phaseout date dependent on international support, including climate finance, to help with the costs of restructuring such contracts. 

Benefits of phasing out coal by 2040

Committing to a complete coal exit by 2040 or earlier will yield various benefits for Morocco’s energy sovereignty and economy:

• Stronger energy sovereignty and energy security: Morocco’s continued dependence on imported coal (and other fossil fuels) exposes it to high costs and supply shocks. In contrast, renewable energy potential, abundant domestically, offers a path to price stability and self-reliance. Every megawatt of solar or wind power added means less money spent on fuel imports and less vulnerability to global market turbulence. In 2023, the national utility (ONEE) electricity branch’s fuel and fossil energy purchase expenses totaled around 39 billion dirhams (≈ 3.9 billion USD), according to the Conseil de la concurrence latest opinion on the electricity sector. However, this level remained nearly double the pre-crisis baseline (≈ 22 billion MAD in 2021, or 2.2 billion USD) and continued to weigh heavily on the finances of ONEE. Since ONEE’s revenues increased only marginally, the 2023 deficit remained significant despite this easing in costs. Fuel price trends suggest that the bill for energy and fuel purchases will remain at roughly the same magnitude as in 2023, i.e., around 40 billion MAD (≈ 4 billion USD). After the decline seen in 2023, coal prices in 2024 have followed a similar trajectory but are still about 20–30 USD/ton higher than in 2021. 

• Economic competitiveness and green jobs: clean energy increasingly makes economic sense for economic competitiveness. The cost of solar and wind power has plummeted in the past decade, making them the most cost-effective sources of electricity in many markets. By accelerating investments in solar, wind, and energy storage, Morocco can create thousands of green jobs, from construction and installation to operations and maintenance. Moreover, these investments can enhance industrial competitiveness by bringing down electricity prices and reducing a carbon intensity which is increasingly uncompetitive in global value chains (e.g. EU with CBAM).

• Opportunities in climate finance and sustainable investment: an ambitious coal phaseout commitment in NDC 3.0 could unlock significant international climate finance and support. Countries that have adopted bold energy transition plans have benefited from mechanisms such as the Just Energy Transition Partnerships (JETPs). These initiatives have committed billions of dollars in concessional financing for countries willing to fast-track their shift from coal to clean energy. With its strong renewable energy potential  and history of leadership, Morocco is well-positioned to attract similar support, but only if it signals a clear and timely exit from coal. This could help finance new infrastructure (renewables, storage, grids) and programs to retrain workers, substantially easing the transition’s costs on the national budget.

Action plan: moving from Coal to Clean

To achieve the country’s aspirations of leadership in the transition from coal to clean energy, Morocco must translate its ambition and intent into concrete actions. Key steps should include:

• No new coal plants commitment: The NDC 3.0 should reaffirm Morocco’s COP26 commitment to no longer pursue any new coal power projects. Approving new coal capacity now would lock in emissions for decades and almost certainly become a costly stranded asset in a world shifting away from coal.

• Planning for retirement of existing coal assets: Moving forward, Morocco should develop detailed, plant-by-plant phaseout roadmaps, with financing options, for the retirement of existing coal-fired power plants. This planning should prioritize retiring the oldest and most polluting units first, and be aligned with the overall timeline of exiting coal by (or before) 2040. Interim milestones (e.g. a certain number of plants closed by 2030) could ensure progress this decade.

• Avoiding a gas lock-in: as coal plants go offline, Morocco must avoid simply replacing these with unabated natural (fossil) gas or fossil-fuel-based hydrogen infrastructure. While gas is assumed to emit less than coal, this often does not fully take into account methane leakage. Gas is still carbon-intensive, with high operating costs compared to renewable energy, and will one day face phasedown pressures. New investments should focus on renewable energy and storage, as well as smart-grid solutions and demand-side measures, rather than creating unnecessary new dependencies on another imported fossil fuel.

• Boosting renewables, storage, and grid resilience: Morocco must accelerate investments in solar and wind farms, as well as unlocking decentralized renewable energy, including small-scale rooftop solar PV, in distributed energy systems and storage solutions like batteries and pumped hydro. Meanwhile, a stronger, smarter grid is needed to handle the variability of renewables and injections into the grid by medium-scale and small-scale PV. Grid modernization (new transmission lines, smart grid technology, and policy changes) and regional interconnections will help ensure reliability as coal plants shut down. These measures will enable renewable energy to gradually replace coal’s role in meeting demand.

• Planning for a Just Transition: crucially, Morocco should design a just transition strategy to support workers and communities affected by the coal phaseout. This includes economic diversification programs, job retraining and placement for relevant workers, and social support where needed.

Conclusion

The upcoming NDC 3.0 update represents a pivotal moment for Morocco’s climate leadership and energy future. By including a clear, ambitious, and socially responsible commitment to coal phaseout by 2040 (or sooner), Morocco can reaffirm its climate leadership, strengthen its energy independence, and unlock new pathways for sustainable economic growth. The evidence is overwhelming that the costs of inaction far exceed the costs of a well-planned transition. 

With its abundant solar and wind resources, established renewable programs, and international goodwill, Morocco is well-positioned to execute a bold coal-to-clean shift. Embedding that commitment in NDC 3.0 would send a powerful signal that Morocco is serious about its new development model. 

Note to readers: the coal phaseout challenge in Morocco was highlighted in IMAL’s March 2025 report “Morocco’s Energy Transition: Stocktake of the New Development Model’s Implementation.” The report underscored that Morocco cannot achieve maximal industrial competitiveness without addressing the carbon intensity caused by coal. Based on the recommendations of Morocco’s New Model for Development (NMD), the report recommended a comprehensive reassessment of long-term power purchase agreements, particularly coal-fired contracts that have become financially non-competitive for the National Office of Electricity (ONEE). Crucially, it called for exploring opportunities to mobilize international climate finance to ease the shift.